Things you need to know.
- Markets continue to digest the news and respond accordingly.
- 50 more earnings reports are due out today.
- Tech on the docket later in the week
- Eco data to light up the tape starting tomorrow.
- Bonds up, Yields down, Oil down, gold erratic.
- Try the Rigatoni – Puglia Style
So, stocks began the week – weaker – on concerns over a big week of data but ended the day higher as a late wave of ‘dippers’ helped to erase the earlier losses as all of those same concerns seemed to dissipate…. – In the final hour of trading investors/traders and algo’s took most stocks into positive territory leaving the indexes a bit mixed….the Dow gained 114 pts, the S&P +4, the Nasdaq down 16 pts, the Russell ended the day up 8, the Transports gained 62 pts, the Equal Weighted S&P added 20 pts while the Mag 7 gave back 85 pts.
On the Eco data front – Dallas reports that Manufacturing activity is souring…. coming in at -35.8 vs. the estimate of -17…. Texas FED members describing the activity with words like ‘chaos and insanity’ to describe the tone created by all of the tariff turmoil. Today we will get housing price data, the JOLTS report, consumer confidence and the Dallas Fed Services activity.
Wednesday brings us the latest PCE data – which is supposed to be improving – showing top line inflation declining to 2.2% (down from +2.5%) while CORE PCE declines to +2.6% (down from +2.8%). It also brings us the latest ADP employment report – and it is expected to show 130k new jobs created.
Good news out of BA, IBM, WELL, CCK, UHS, NUE, WM, TER all helped the tone of the markets while NVDA got banged over the head on news that China once again is set to test a new AI chip that is supposed to put NVDA out of business. Huawei has developed a chip – Ascend 910D that is being sold as a replacement to some of the higher end chips made by Jensen Huang….and is expected to be more powerful than the H100. And not to be left out of the conversation – Chamath – tells us that NVDA is Huawei’s ‘new target’ and that it crushes tech giants with a low-end disruptor strategy. NVDA lost 2% yesterday to end the day at $108.73 and is quoted right there this morning.
Today will bring us 40 more names that include: KO, UPS, GM, THC, MO, GLW, REGN, PII ETR, RCL, JBLU, HON, PFE, PYPL – these companies represent: Non – alcoholic beverages, Courier Services, Autos, healthcare facilities, tobacco, communications equipment, bio-tech, recreational vehicles, integrated electric utilities, cruise lines, airlines, diversified industrials, large pharma, and consumer finance. After the bell – look for V, PPG, BXP, SBUX, SNAP, FSLR and they represent: financial services, specialty chemicals, office REITs, restaurants, internet media & services and renewable energy.
KO just reported and topped estimates and kept their full year guidance saying the expect ‘minimal tariff disruption’ while GM beats but ‘re-assesses’ full year guidance by ‘suspending it’ amid tariff arguments and puts their buyback on ‘hold’! (they said freeze). KO is quoted up 0.6% while GM is quoted down 3%.
Now this is also a big week for tech – MSFT, META, AMZN & AAPL and tariff uncertainty has been front and center for the markets and the trade agreements are a key variable for tech stocks this week. Investors are anxiously awaiting the results from these ‘whales’ to get a better grasp on the demand. Expectations are for generally strong results from these four this week and that speaks to healthy demand. Cloud spending by the hyperscalers – the large-scale cloud service providers that offer computing, storage and IT services for ‘millions of users’ include AMZN Web Services, MSFT Azure, GOOG cloud platform, IBM Cloud, ORCL Cloud, META & APPLE is key. The expected rebound in digital advertising, and the ongoing AI Tech Revolution IS good news for tech investors and that is one of if not THE major theme this week.
On the other side of the argument – is tariff uncertainty and that continues to cause angst for the hyperscalers, the semi’s and the tech sector as a whole as this ‘storm’ with China continues…..do not expect much in terms of guidance about the tariffs as it remains uncertain about how this will be resolved. I (personally) own and will continue to own AAPL, MSFT, IBM, AMZN & NVDA and took complete advantage of the recent weakness.
It is 100 days since Trump took office – and as you can imagine -the commentary spans a wide range of perspectives – good and bad. Senator Chucky Schumer – Dem: NY (a man who withheld the truth about JoJo’s health and mental capacity) told us that it has been ‘100 days of hell’ for America – (that an interesting description) – while those on the other side are telling us that Trump was elected to be a ‘change agent’ and that ‘change can be difficult’. In any event – expect to hear all kinds of analysis from both sides about the first 100 days today. I think the ‘change’ is coming in the next 200 days or so – and by then it should be clearer understanding that the timelines remain fluid. Let’s hope that is the way this plays out –
Bonds rose again yesterday and that continues to put pressure on rates…. The 2 yr is now yielding 3.7% (a 7% decline in yields off the April high) while the 10 yr is yielding 4.22% (a 9% decline in yields off the April high). 12 month CDs are paying you 4.4% – 5% depending on what you commit. 30 yr mortgages are now 6.8% down slightly from 6.9% last week. (Oh, Egg prices. They are down too – dropping from $8.17 on March 3rd to $3.00 on April 2nd….and that represents a 63% drop in prices).
Gold rose yesterday on a weakened dollar – rising $56 or 1.7% but this morning is giving much of it back as the dollar strengthens… gold is down $23 – leaving it still in the $3300/$3500 trading range. A break below $3300 – will take us to $3200 fairly quickly…. While the push higher will most likely hit resistance at the $3400 level.
Oil is under a bit of pressure as the dollar strengthens and they revive the waning demand/oversupply story – taking oil down 1.8% or $1.15 at $60.93. Now, remember – I think $60 is a key support level……should we fail to hold it, then we will test the lows of April that took us down to $55….and if they continue with the global economy weakening/waning demand/oversupply theory – then we could see oil test the $50 level….and if they push the renewable energy/nuclear option – which is gaining all kinds of speed – then $50 oil would not be out of the question at all. So, sit tight – I think we see $50 before we see $70. (We will have to revisit that prediction in a couple of months).
This morning – US futures are not sure what to do……. Dow futures+180, S&Ps are flat, Nasdaq – 10 while the Russell down 4.
European markets are also mixed… Italy up 0.4%, while France is down 0.3%. Everyone else is somewhere in between.
The S&P closed at 5,528 up 3 pts…Expect more churn as we digest earnings and eco data. While the market continues to repair the damage we sustained over the past month – it will respond dramatically to any trade news…. While the tone is better, we know how fast that can change…..so stick to your plan and remain resilient. We remain in the 4835 (lows of April) / 5658 (trendline resistance) trading range. Feel free to call me to discuss.
Take good care,
Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Wall Street Journal
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The market commentary is the opinion of the author and is based on decades of industry and market experience; however, no guarantee is made or implied with respect to these opinions, which may not necessarily align with our firm’s standpoint.
While considerable effort has been invested to ensure the accuracy and dependability of the information presented, we must clarify that we cannot guarantee the accuracy of third-party information. Our usual sources for third-party data include channels such as Bloomberg.
Rigatoni – Puglia Style
Puglia, Italy’s southeastern region, has a rich history spanning millennia, shaped by its strategic position in the Mediterranean. Here’s a bit of history –
Around the 8th century BCE, the Messapi, an Illyrian or Greek-related people, settled in southern Puglia, establishing cities like Otranto and Manduria. They resisted Greek colonization but absorbed Hellenic culture. By the 3rd century BCE, Rome conquered the region integrating Puglia into the Roman Republic. Roman roads like the Via Appia and ports like Brindisi boosted trade and connectivity.
Under Rome, Puglia flourished as a grain-producing region, with cities like Bari and Lecce thriving. After the Western Roman Empire’s fall in 476 CE, Puglia faced invasions by Goths and Lombards but became a Byzantine stronghold by the 6th century. The Byzantines fortified coastal cities, and Greek influence persisted in language and religion.
The Normans conquered Puglia in the 11th century, making it part of the Kingdom of Sicily and then came the Spaniards…
Under Spanish rule (1500s–1700s), Puglia was part of the Kingdom of Naples. Heavy taxation and neglect led to poverty, though Baroque architecture flourished in cities like Lecce. Coastal towers were built to defend against Ottoman raids, yet the region remained agrarian and underdeveloped.
Puglia joined unified Italy in 1861 after Garibaldi’s campaigns, but unification brought challenges. The region’s economy lagged, and land reforms failed to alleviate peasant poverty, spurring mass emigration to the Americas and northern Europe. During the 20th century, Mussolini’s regime invested in infrastructure, like the Apulian Aqueduct, but World War II brought hardship, with Bari suffering Allied bombings. Post-war, Puglia modernized slowly, with agriculture (olives, wine, wheat) and tourism driving growth.
Today, Puglia is celebrated for its cultural heritage, cuisine, and tourism. Its economy blends agriculture, manufacturing, and a booming tourism sector, fueled by its beaches, festivals, and historic towns. It is a spectacular place to visit.
So today we will have Rigatoni.
This is a simple yet delicious dish.
For this you need: 1 lb. of Rigatoni, Ricotta cheese, pancetta, Butter, garlic and some pasta water.
Bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil – add the pasta and cook for 8 mins.
Sauté your pancetta in butter and a garlic clove and when it is nice and crispy – remove the garlic clove and remove some pancetta to use a topping.
Now add the ricotta to the pan and stir to melt. Now add the pasta and a ladle of pasta water to help make it really creamy.
Serve immediately – and top with some extra pancetta. Yum.
Buon Appetito
