Things You Need to Know
- Stocks end the day higher, but the week lower.
- The Indexes all hold KEY trendlines – that’s good.
- NY Fed President Johnny Williams says a cut is coming.
- Boston’s Suzy Collins – does NOT agree.
- It’s an abbreviated week – expect exaggerated moves.
- Try the Stuffed Cubanelle Peppers for Thanksgiving.
And just like that — we flip from Risk Off to Risk On…The Momo guys ceasing to cause chaos….Crypto got crushed last week – trading as low at $80,500, while the AI plays found plenty of buyers after getting crushed in the prior week.
Stocks staged a solid comeback on Friday — yes, the week still ended lower — but the tone into this morning is constructive. It’s a holiday-shortened week, which means the humans will start disappearing by Wednesday, while the algo’s… well, they never take a day off. They don’t do turkey, they don’t do travel, so expect some exaggerated moves. But let’s not overreact.
On Friday morning, I reminded you that the trendlines are KEY — especially for the algo’s and the momo crowd. Here’s what I said:
“DOW, S&P, NASDAQ are sitting right on their intermediate-term trendline support — this is KEY. A failure to hold would invite another wave of selling. The Russell, Transports, and Mag 7 had already pierced theirs, while the Equal-Weight S&P was about to test long-term support at 7318.”
And what happened? The trendlines held. Bulls defended the position. And — at least for the moment — we’re back to accentuating the positives.
The Transports were the standout — surging 3.15% and reclaiming both the intermediate and short-term trendlines (easy enough, since those two were converging). The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all ended higher but are still trading between intermediate-term support and short-term resistance.
The Russell fought all day but managed to close back above its intermediate term trendline. The Equal-Weight S&P held its long-term trendline beautifully and remains comfortably between long- and intermediate-term support.
Interestingly, the Mag 7 was the laggard. It ended the day higher but failed to impress — still stuck between the intermediate- and short-term trendlines.
Bottom line: Friday’s action helped calm the chaos… but today is another day.
At the closing bell this is what it looked like: Dow gained 495 pts or 1.1%, the S&P up 65 pts or 1%, the Nasdaq rose 195 pts or 0.9%, the Russell gained 65 pts or 2.8%, the Transports added 488 pts or 3.15%, the Equal Weight S&P added 142 pts or 1.9% while the Mag 7 gained 258 pts or 0.8%.
Notice anything interesting? The Nasdaq and Mag 7 (both tech) were the underperformers for the day. Both rose less than 1%. The sectors? Well,
Basic Materials were the winner – rising 2.25% on the day…. think names like LIN +1%, NEM +1.8%, SHW +2.8%, NUE + 3.5%, MLM +1%, APD +2.5%, & FCX +0.6%. Healthcare up 2.1% – think LLY +1.6%, JNJ + 0.5%, ABBV +3%, MRK +3% (this has been one of my favorites and is up 29% since I first featured it on Varney & Co.), ISRG + 1.7%.
Consumer Discretionary + 2% think AMZN + 1.6%, HD +3.5%, MCD + 1.75%, TJX +2.3%, & LOW + 2.5%. Communications +1.75% think META + 0.9%, GOOG +3.3%, VZ + 1.2%, T +1.7%.
Real Estate +1.3% think WELL +1.25%, PLD +2.2%, AMT +0.3%, SPG +1.7%, PSA +1.5%. Industrials +1.25% think CAT +0.8%, UNP +2.3%, DE +2.3%.
Consumer Staples + 1.1% think COST +0.7%, PG +1.8%, CL +2.6%, Financials +1.1% think BRK/B +0.6%, V +1.3%, MA +2.4%, AXP +2.6%, Energy +0.6%, Tech +0.4% while Utilities gained 0.15%.
The move was fueled once again by comments from NY Fed President Johnny Williams, who said he “sees room for a rate cut.” We know the committee remains split — but the sense in the market is that a cut is coming, and the Fed Funds Futures confirm it. Odds of a December cut have climbed back to 70%, up from 40% early last week.
In the end, the broader narrative — improving economy, slowing inflation, easing prices, steady labor market — is not broken, despite what some would have you believe. The science — and in this case, science = macroeconomic data — continues to say the economy is holding up. And the recent “reset” we saw? It is not signaling a trend reversal. None of the major indexes pierced their long-term trendlines, and none slipped into correction territory. Uncomfortable? Sure. But this isn’t “the place is on fire.”
Bonds rose; yields fell on the back of the Johnny comments. But today we might see a bit of a reversal after Boston’s Suzy Collins said, “not so fast Big Boy’. (Meaning she is not supporting a rate cut) This morning the 10 yr is yielding 4.04% – down from 4.12% early last week, while the 30 yr is yielding 4.68% down from 4.75%.
Oil continues to trade below the KEY $60 level. This morning it is down 20 cts at $57.85. Remember, the move lower is a direct result of oversupply NOT lack of demand. We remain in the $55/$60.30 (follow the trendline) trading range.
Gold continues to be confused…will they cut or not? Today the bet is yes…Gold is up $5 at $4070 – and it continues to trade just above trendline support at $3,990. A failure to cut, will see gold test that trendline – a break could easily see it test $3,925 and if that fails to hold – then the intermediate term trendline is at $3,698 – Now, I don’t think it happens right now, I’m just giving you a sense of what the chart is saying.
Now – Bitcoin, however, is a different conversation. Yes, it has broken down. Yes, it has sliced through every meaningful trendline. And yes, it’s deep into bear-market territory — down 32% from its highs. But remember — most investors are NOT in Bitcoin.
From the chart:
$75,000 is a key level — the March 2024 highs and the April 2025 lows. $80,000 sits roughly 6% above that zone. So, tread lightly — it can go either way from here. This morning BTC is trading around $86,000.
So, if the question is: “What percent of investors own crypto?”
The answer is roughly 17% of U.S. investors — and that includes all crypto, not just Bitcoin.
By contrast, about 62% of Americans own stocks (think IRAs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s, Roths, 529s, etc.).
And this is key:
“Owns crypto” does not mean a meaningful allocation. Some hold a tiny sliver; others have a bigger bite. Big difference. For me? Bitcoin is less than 2% of my portfolio. I can say I own it — but it’s not changing my life, and it’s not going to blow me up if it drops another 6%. Capisce? So yes, my toes are in the water, but I’m not drowning.
Eco data remains delayed – I’m not sure if they even know when they will report, but in any event – it will become LESS important as the week goes on, only because many participants will be away from their desks….so what do they do? They put in GTC (Good Til Cancelled) lower bids and GTC higher offers to take advantage of any potential exaggerated swings that may happen this week. Think Buy at a discount, Sell at a premium.
US Futures are churning…. Dow futures are flat, S&P’s up 18, the Nasdaq is up 123 while the Russell is up 1.
The VIX remains elevated at 23.36 and is above all 3 trendlines…. but it is clearly moving lower – this morning it is down 0.25%. As it moves lower, we should see volatility and anxiety decline.
European markets are mixed – Italy is down 1% while Spain is up 0.6%. Recall – this is a big week in the UK – on the 28th – they will get the latest budget proposal, and it is expected to see an increase in taxes all over the place. The only issue is what will be the depth and breadth of those hikes and will the PM throw Rachel Reeves (Chancellor of the Exchequer) out after the fact? Hold onto your hats, we are about to find out.
Now, let’s be crystal clear: The shift in the tone of the markets is being amplified by conflicting narratives….the FED, rates, AI valuations, ongoing tariffs, macro-economic data, capex and more….and while that is always the case – it just feels a bit more anxious than normal…. Which speaks to why you need to make sure you have a plan and the plan has an appropriate risk level for who you are.
The S&P closed at 6,602 – up 64 pts. We remain between the trendlines – 6548 is key support – keep your eyes focused…We will have shutdown delayed data this week, Markets are closed on Thursday, and they close early on Friday. People will be away, and volumes will be muted, so reactions can be amplified in either direction…so be careful not to make emotional decisions. Remember, reversals can happen fast.
Call me at 561-931-0190 – to give you a no obligation portfolio review. Let me help you assess the risk of the portfolio vs. the risk you are willing to take.
Take good care,
Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Wall Street Journal
Disclosure: The content provided in this material is designed for educational and informational purposes only, and it is important to note that it does not constitute personalized recommendations. This commentary is not nor is it intended to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment. The comments noted herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial product, or an official statement or endorsement of Kenny Polcari or SlateStone Wealth.
The market commentary is the opinion of the author and is based on decades of industry and market experience; however, no guarantee is made or implied with respect to these opinions, which may not necessarily align with our firm’s standpoint.
While considerable effort has been invested to ensure the accuracy and dependability of the information presented, we must clarify that we cannot guarantee the accuracy of third-party information. Our usual sources for third-party data include channels such as Bloomberg.
Stuffed Cubanelle Peppers
Another Thanksgiving vegetable to serve….and so good….
Cubanelle peppers are the long Italian peppers used for stuffing. Pick up a dozen from the store and try this recipe.
You need: Cubanelle Peppers, Italian seasoned breadcrumbs, olive oil,
Put the breadcrumbs in a bowl and add some olive oil – enough to wet them but not enough to soak them…. mix well.
Now – using a teaspoon – carefully stuff the pepper – pushing the breadcrumbs deep into the pepper with your finger if you need to. Once stuffed – place in a baking dish – alternating ‘head to toe’.
Preheat the oven to 375 degrees.
Now drizzle the peppers with a bit of olive oil – not too much – they will make their own oil….
Now cover with foil and place in the oven – bake for about 30 mins. Now remove the foil and let them brown for about another 10 – 15 mins or so. …. If there is too much oil – just take a spoon and remove some it.
When done – Remove and let stand while they cool. Now – if you overstuffed them – then expect to see some of the stuffing come out of the pepper – no problem – It’s all good. Serve alongside the other veggies at your Thanksgiving table.
Buon Appetito!