Things You Need to Know
- Investors celebrate the framework of a trade deal with China.
- Trump travels across Asia.
- The WSJ announces the FED finalists – My vote – Ricky Reider.
- Gold suffers some profit taking – traded back into the $3800’s overnight.
- Oil down, bonds up, yields down.
- Cathie Woods states the obvious.
- Try the Pan Roasted Chicken Parts with Peas and Potatoes.
Stocks surged on trade breakthrough and closed higher on Monday evening — and yeah, I know, it’s starting to sound like a broken record… new high after new high after new high. But this time, the catalyst came from the announcement by Scotty Bessent and Jamie Greer that they’ve succeeded in creating a framework for trade with China. And this time, it feels real. Xi Xi has been boxed into a corner and finally seems to recognize that the only way out is to come to the table and make a deal.
To be fair, both sides got their “wins” — the media is already calling it an array of diplomatic victories — and global markets cheered the news.
Under the agreement, the 100% tariffs are officially off the table, a huge relief that removes what would have been a devastating blow to the Chinese economy. In return, Xi Xi agreed to delay new licensing demands on rare-earths for at least a year, providing much-needed stability to their tech sector, which depends heavily on those resources.
Meanwhile, Trump secured parallel deals with Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia to diversify rare-earth supply chains — effectively reducing U.S. dependence on Chinese materials. And in another symbolic step, China will resume large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans and agricultural goods, helping ease domestic shortages and signaling a return to normalized trade.
Perhaps most notably, Xi Xi also conceded on fentanyl, agreeing to strengthen cooperation to stem the flow of the deadly drug into the U.S. — a key political and humanitarian win for Washington.
Now — before you go ‘all in’ — analysts are already cautioning that some of the deeper issues remain unresolved. The sticking points — U.S. national security concerns and China’s industrial policy — have been quietly kicked down the road. So yes, this is progress, and that is good, but you and I both know it isn’t over…. Those issues will come back around — For now, the bulls are dancing, and while the trade clouds may have cleared for the moment, they are still hanging just offshore. – Do not lose perspective.
By the time the bell rang – the screens were green – it was hard to find anything in the red – other than the contra trades and GOLD – they did not have a good day.
The DOG lost 0.7%, the SH – 1.2%, the PSQ – 1.8%, the VIXY – 3.3%, SPXS -3.5%.
And GOLD? That got smashed – slicing right thru $4,000 like a ‘hot knife thru butta’…..it lost $130 or 3.2% to end the day at $3,982 and this morning it is under more pressure – breaking down thru $3900 to trade as low as $3,886 before rallying back a bit. At 6 am gold is trading at $3,905. Gold is now down 11% in one week and appears as if it wants to test short term trendline support at $3,780…. which is down another 2% from here.
But let’s not lose focus – Gold is up 49% ytd even today. The move lower in gold can be credited to a couple of things….easing trade tensions, strong earnings, no sense of a collapsing economy, little to no impact from the ‘tariff hysteria’ and just some old fashioned ‘profit taking’ – I mean let’s be honest – gold was up 110% in 2 yrs….and while that’s great – remember, it’s gold, it is not some new AI company or AI technology. If it fails to hold short-term support do not be surprised to see it test $3500 – a level that proved to be resistance for 6 months (March – Sept 2025) and would now be considered to be strong support.
Now stocks reacted differently – The Dow added 337 pts or 0.7%, the S&P up 83 or 1.25%, the Nasdaq added 432 pts or 1.9%, the Russell up 7 pts or 0.25%, the Transports gained 208 pts or 1.35%, the Equal Weight S&P up 35 pts or 0.5% while the Mag 7 stocks added 860 pts or 2.6%.
Earnings continue to come in strong….of the 17 names that reported yesterday – 12 of them beat on the top and bottom lines and guidance was not negative….that leaves us with about 85% beat rate of companies that have reported – a level we have not seen for a while.
We have 29 more companies that will report before the bell and they include SHW, PII, IQV, MSCI, THC, REGN, CE JBLU, SYY, UPS, PYPL, UNH, GLW, DHI & RCL and these companies again represent a range of industries – Specialty Chemicals, Consumer Retail, Life Sciences, Financial Services, Hospitals/healthcare, Biotech, Airlines, Food Service, Logistics/Supply Chain, Fintech/Digital Payments, Managed Care/Insurance, Specialty Glass/Ceramics & Homebuilders.
After the bell – we will hear from MDLZ, EXE, V, TTI, STX, MOD & VRNS and that includes Global Snacks, Senior Care/Living, Credit Cards, Oilfield Services, Data Storage/Hardware, Commercial & Residential Bldg Equipment and Data Security.
All Eyes on the Fed (Again) – And so it begins — today marks the start of the October FOMC meeting, and please — do not ask what they’re going to do. If you’ve been awake for the last three months, you already know: they’re about to cut rates by 25 bps, and they’ll hint at another cut in December.
The market knows this. The market has priced this in. So don’t be surprised if we get a little “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of reaction. Unless JJ comes out and promises a series of additional cuts in the new year, I’m not sure there’s much room left for stocks to run higher on this particular headline. The bottom line? The cut is coming; the question now isn’t ‘if’ it’s what’s happens next!
Meanwhile — The Wall Street Journal is out this morning with a piece outlining who’s in the running to replace JJ, and the list looks like a roll call of usual suspects: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Chrissy Waller, and Mishy Bowman.
But the dark horse in this race — is BlackRock’s Ricky Reider. Now that’s an interesting choice. The market seems to expect one of the Kevins to get the nod, but if I had a vote – I’d love to see Ricky take the reins.
The guy’s got presence – he is 64, good looking, hits the gym at 4 am every morning and maintains an ‘intense workout’, he is the CIO of Global Fixed Income at Blackrock (they manage more than $12 trillion), he earned his undergraduate degree from Emory and his MBA from Wharton.
He’s got market sense, global perspective, and a deep understanding of risk dynamics that could bring a steadier hand to the Fed in this new era of AI, deglobalization, and inflation volatility. But most of all – he is an outsider, something I like in this new era….and it might be exactly what the FED (and we) need right now. And so, the clock ticks.
This morning US futures are ‘breathing’…..and yes, while they are higher, they feel a bit tired…. At 6:45 Dow futures are up 52 pts, the S&P’s up 1, the Nasdaq up 23 and the Russell is down 8 pts. The big day is tomorrow – after the bell – when we hear from some of the ‘GOATS’ – GOOG, META, & MSFT. AMZN and AAPL will come out on Thursday. NVDA is not until November 19th…. TSLA already reported.
Bonds ended higher yesterday and that put a little pressure on yields. TLT and TLH went up 0.35% and 0.3% respectively. The 10-yr yield is once again below 4% at 3.97% while the 30 yr is yielding 4.55%. 12 month CD rates are hovering around 4% (and going lower) while 30 yr mortgage rates are about 6.2%…
Bitcoin is trading at $114,500 while Ethereum is trading at $4,115.
Oil has backed off….Intermediate trendline resistance at $62.60 held firm and when we tried to pierce it – we found plenty of sellers…..This morning oil is down 75 cts at $60.56 – once again below all 3 trendlines – putting us once again in the $55/$62 trading range. Remember – street analysts are expecting lower prices due to a supply glut in early 2026. Brent is expected to end in the low to mid $50’s and that means WTI would be in the high $40’s…..A welcomed relief for so many.
The S&P closed at 6,875 up 83 points leaving us in yet another new century. We have now traded in 20 different centuries in 2025 – a low of 4835 to yesterday’s closing high of 6,875.
This morning – Cathie Woods of ARKK fame (+59% ytd) is sounding the warning bell at Davos in the Desert’ Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh. She joins the likes of JPM’s Jamie Dimon, Fed Chair JJ Powell, OpenAI’s Sammy Altman and Slatestone’s Kenny Polcari. Now she is – NOT saying that we are in an AI bubble – but rather saying that ‘when’ rates go up – tech names WILL take a hit. Saying ‘We think there will be a reality check’ – to which I would say – ‘No Sh*t’!
She pointed to – something I have been saying all along – Algorithms…. And we all know how they work! When they see a headline they don’t like – they go into SELL mode – oblivious to the damage that they wreak on the markets and on investors….but hey – we allowed this to happen, the same way we allowed China to have so much control over the supply chain. So, shame on us…. But that is another story for another day.
Here is your countdown.
It is now 28 days of the Gov’t shutdown – with no end in sight.
2 days until the FED announcement.
32 Days until Official Black Friday.
58 Day until Christmas
64 Days until the ball drops in Times Square.
Let’s review your plan. Call me for a complimentary, no-obligation portfolio analysis: 561-931-0190.
Take good care,
Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Wall Street Journal
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The market commentary is the opinion of the author and is based on decades of industry and market experience; however, no guarantee is made or implied with respect to these opinions, which may not necessarily align with our firm’s standpoint.
While considerable effort has been invested to ensure the accuracy and dependability of the information presented, we must clarify that we cannot guarantee the accuracy of third-party information. Our usual sources for third-party data include channels such as Bloomberg.
Simple Pan Roasted Chicken parts with Peas and Potatoes
For this you need- chicken parts – legs and thighs, chicken stock, white wine (optional), s&p, butter, celery, carrots and onions (diced), fresh basil, cut up potatoes and frozen peas.
In large frying pan – heat up some olive oil – when hot add in the seasoned chicken parts. Fry until browned and then flip them.
Now add in the diced veggies and ½ stick of butter. Let it cook for 10 mins.
Now add in ½ cup of white wine and allow the alcohol to burn off. Now add 1 c of chicken stock. Cover and cook on low for 15 mins.
Now add fresh basil, cubed potatoes and frozen peas. Season with s&p and then cover and cook for another 25 mins. Season with s&p.
Serve it ‘family style’ – you can thank me later.
Buon Appetito!