Things you need to know
- Oil keeps marching higher, Trump now considering ‘all options’.
- Meta disappoints, but MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG crush it.
- Bond yields are UP, Gold Up, VIX Down.
- APPL after the bell.
- PCE and GDP will add to the story.
- Try the Apple Pie and Ice Cream
Ok – Good morning. Yesterday April 29, 2026 — was not a normal day. It was a day where JJ (Powell) said ‘adios’, (I’m out of here, but not really), four FOMC members went rogue in the biggest dissent since 1992, oil went vertical, Yields went higher, Gold went lower and four of the most powerful companies on planet Earth reported earnings simultaneously after the bell. One day. All of it. At once. Welcome to Wall St.
And markets? The Dow logged its fifth straight losing session. The Russell got clobbered again. But here’s the punchline — underneath all that drama, the earnings – and there were a lot of them – 90, – 88% of them beat…. I’d say, that’s pretty good, yet the market didn’t celebrate. The market just didn’t care. Because when oil is at $108, inflation is simmering on the back burner, the Fed can’t cut, Powell is heading for the door and the Strait is still closed, buyers had NO reason to be aggressive at all, and so stocks fell…..….I mean would you disagree? .
At the closing bell – the Dow gave up 280 pts, the S&P lost 3, the Nasdaq added 10, the Russell lost 16, the Transports gave up 200, the Equal weight S&P lost 15 while the Mag 7 gave up 133.
Let’s break it all down – this was JJ’s last beauty pageant. The FOMC held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% (no surprise) in an 8–4 split—and that’s the SURPRISE. Not the pause…the dissent. Because this wasn’t about holding rates—three of those dissenters were pushing back on the language, essentially saying: STOP talking about cuts. That’s hawkish. Now he did not suggest hikes either, but the message is clear – NO CUT FOR YOU.
And then came the parting shot—he confirms he’s stepping down as Chair on May 15th but is staying on the Board… warning that political pressure is “battering” the institution. Not subtle. Not even a little. Meanwhile—the Senate moves Kevin Warsh one step closer to the top job…after Tommy Tillis flipped to yes. The torch is being passed—and make no mistake—the market is already trying to figure out what a Warsh Fed looks like. Buckle up. We discussed this earlier this week, so no need to rehash – you know the drill.
Then we saw oil surge higher and it is higher again today – up $1.70 at $108.50….That’s not really helpful, but let’s be honest and fair – this is about neutralizing a bully, this is about breaking the back of a rogue regime that abuses their citizens and threatens the world order. Let’s not dance around the issue.
What’s happening with Iran is front and center, and the message from Washington has been crystal clear – the naval blockade stays until the regime changes its behavior. Period. Now look, you can argue about how we got here, but the reality is they had plenty of time to find an off-ramp, and they chose not to take it. So here we are. Oil is pricing in a prolonged standoff, the risk premium is real, So, what does that mean? Higher oil = stickier inflation = higher-for-longer rates. It’s the chain reaction.
Bond yields ticked higher – did you think they were going lower? The 2 yr is now yielding 3.90%, the 10 yr is at 4.40% while the 30 yr is yielding 4.98% but overnight it did kiss and penetrate 5% – even if just ‘a little’. Now what is important here is that you recognize – 2 weeks ago the 2 yr was yielding 3.68%, the 10 yr was at 4.22% while the 30 yr was yielding 4.83%…. So, the message is clear…no one should be confused.
Gold got hit again yesterday—down $52 to $4,544—as traders recognize what is driving the bus: rates and yields. When yields rise, gold loses its shine…simple as that. But this morning? Different story. Gold is bouncing—up $76 on a fresh safe-haven bid after headlines hit that Trump is reviewing all military options against Iran. And there it is—that push and pull we keep talking about. Gold stuck in a tug-of-war…on one side: higher oil, rising yields, stronger dollar-all headwinds. On the other: geopolitical risk, uncertainty, fear- all tailwinds. And depending on which risk markets focus on at the moment – dictates where it goes from one day to the next. So don’t overthink it – it is in a trading range – $4,270/$4,750.
And what everyone is waiting for……. BIG TECH earnings. Mamma mia – Oh what a night…. Four of the most valuable companies on the planet all stepping up to the plate—and for the most part? It was OK – it was NOT the disaster that Berbee tried to make it out to be in Tuesday’s WSJ article…..
Microsoft said don’t worry about Azure—they printed $82.9B in revenue, beat on EPS, and most importantly? Azure growth accelerated to 40%. That’s the number. That’s what the AI bulls needed—this morning the stock is quoted down 2% (dumb – but remember it has rallied 19% since April 1st so the trader types are taking profits)
Amazon. EPS blew the doors off—$2.78 vs. $1.64. AWS grew 28%—fastest in 15 quarters—and then Jassy drops the mic: massive future AI demand with OpenAI lining up capacity. This morning it is quoted up 2.5%.
Alphabet—this one lit it up. Revenue growth 20%, Cloud over $20B growing 63%—that’s not a typo—and margins expanding. Yeah, Cloud is the story – Period. GOOG is up 6.1% in the pre-mkt.
And then there’s Meta – They beat, they guided in-line—but the market said not good enough. Why? Capex spending. Zuckerberg just keeps spending money – raising AI spend again – on top of already massive numbers all while user growth disappointed (blamed in part on disruptions in Iran/Russia/Ukraine). And the stock is getting spanked – down nearly 9%.
The bottom line – 3 out of 4 delivered exactly what the market needed to hear: AI demand is real; Cloud growth is accelerating and the spending – while massive – is being justified (for now)
But META? That was your reminder, the market will not blindly reward spending without clean execution. So yes, the AI trade is still intact, but the bar is high.
Strap in. Let’s go.
Ok – I’m at the NYSE, hosting some clients on the trading floor – give them a history of the markets, talk about the transition from open outcry to complete automation, how and why. I’ll take them for a walk thru history – starting in 1980 – (When I came to Wall St.). And so, here’s a bit for you to chew on –
Everyone’s staring at oil this morning…and they should be. Because what’s happening right now? It’s not new. It’s a rerun (think history repeats itself) — and if you don’t understand the late 1970’s, you’re gonna miss the message.
Let’s rewind the tape because it is eerily familiar –
Back in 1979 — the Iranian Revolution turns the global oil market upside down. One of the world’s biggest producers goes offline overnight. Supply shock. Panic. Prices double. Sound familiar? And then it gets worse.
November 1979 — the Iranian Hostage Crisis. Fifty-two Americans held for 444 days. Geopolitical tension explodes. The world realizes this isn’t a short-term disruption — this is structural instability in the Middle East. Oil doesn’t just rise… it stays bid.
Then 1980 hits — the Iran–Iraq War breaks out. More supply disruption. More uncertainty. More fear premium in crude. And what did that do? It fed directly into inflation — double digits. It crushed confidence. It slowed growth. That’s how you got Stagflation.
Now fast forward to TODAY. And once again Iran is at the center of the debate. We’re nine weeks into this Iran situation. The Strait of Hormuz? Still a question mark. Shipping routes? Disrupted. Insurance costs? Surging. Oil? Trading at $108 – up some 75% since February 28th.
And just like back then — this is not just about oil. It’s about: Energy feeding inflation expectations, Inflation pressuring the bond market, Yields staying higher for longer, And stocks? They will be forced to reprice that reality.
Now here’s where it gets really interesting… Back then — the Fed, led by Paul Volcker, had no choice. They slammed rates to 20% to break inflation, which was running at 13%. It worked… but it broke the economy in the process. Painful recession. Unemployment north of 10.8% by late 1982.
Today? The Fed is trying to thread the needle. They don’t want to recreate Volcker. But they also can’t ignore inflation if oil keeps pushing higher. That’s the tension in the market right now. So, when you see oil spike on another Hormuz headline… when you see yields refuse to come down… when you see gold confused because rates are rising while fear is rising, when you have geo-political chaos…That’s not noise. That’s the market remembering 1979.
It’s the same chain reaction, just a different century.
So don’t get cute here. Stay disciplined. Focus on quality, cash flow, and diversification.
Now the contra indicator is the VIX again….. It continues to tell you that investors are just not getting anxious…yet. It closed last night at 18.70 and this morning it is down 2.5% at 18.34. I find that very interesting because the headlines suggest caution. But this can all change on a dime.
What to watch today…. Apple (AAPL) reports Q2 earnings after the bell…..but before we get there – we will hear from COP, H, CAH, THC, LHX, ICE, APD, OWL, LLY, MRK, MA….and they represent Energy, Hospitality/Travel, Healthcare, Hospitals, Aerospace & Defense, Financial Infrastructure, Chemicals, Alternative Assets Management, Pharma and Payments/Tech. It is a deliberate cross section of the economy, and it touches every major theme in the markets today.
Eco data? Oh boy – The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index)—that’s the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—and Q1 GDP both hit. Those two numbers could be the most market-moving prints of the week. Why? Because oil is up 76% since March 1st and Powell is already warning about supply shock inflation. So, if PCE comes in hot – expect the 10-yr to go higher – and that’s gonna put pressure on stocks. Then you layer in GDP. If growth is slowing while inflation stays sticky – THAT’S the nightmare scenario…Can you say Stagflation? That’s what the Fed fears most. Welcome to 1980!
US futures – The Dow -40, S&P’s up 9, Nasdaq +75 while the Russell is flat.
The S&P closed at 7,135 – down 3 pts…. We are still at a crossroads – the winds of change are all around us…
From a technical standpoint – we are well above all 3 trendlines on both the S&P and Nasdaq, the RSI’s (relative strength indexes) are still in overbot territory. Last night’s numbers are not causing a sell off (nor should they), but there is a lot of noise, so talk to your advisor.
Call me at 561-931-0190 and let’s talk about how SlateStone Wealth can help you navigate all of this and reach your goals.
Take good care,
Kp
[email protected]
Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Wall Street Journal
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Apple Pie (And Vanilla Ice Cream) – It’s about the EARNINGS!
Who doesn’t love Apple Pie (And who doesn’t love AAPL?)
For this you need – 2 tablespoons all-purpose flour, plus more for dusting, readymade pie crust, 2 Granny Smith apples, peeled, cored, and sliced, 3/4 cup sugar, plus additional for pie top, Zest and juice of 1 lemon, 1 1/2 teaspoons cinnamon, 1/2 teaspoon nutmeg,2 tablespoons unsalted butter, 1 large egg, beaten
Preheat your oven to 375 degrees.
Roll out the pie crust – on a floured surface. – lightly butter the pie dish – and then place one of the doughs into the pie plate.
In a large bowl – mix apples, sugar, lemon zest and juice, spices, and flour. Toss well. Pour the mix into pie pan. – always add a bit of butter….and then take the other half of the pie crust and cover the pie. Using your thumb and forefinger – make a ‘ribbon’ by crimping the edge. Using a butter knife – cut 2 or 3 vents into the top.
Brush the top with the beaten egg, and finish by sprinkling a bit of sugar on top.
Place it in oven and bake for about 45 mins or so…. You want a nice golden-brown crust – remove and let cool. Serve with your favorite vanilla ice cream.
Enjoy.
Buon Appetito